I began researching an article about the long-term impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, when I was repeatedly and horribly side-tracked. What I found has changed the way I think. Permanently.
I take only three events in history, and read up on the facts, of which few, or none, are being taught in today’s schools. I also need to apologize for my prior, and sometimes excitable, even pleased reaction when good news about Russia’s unacceptable invasion pops up. And it seems to be popping up with ever more regularity.
I know Ukraine. I’ve been there, I’ve taught Ukrainian exchange students (all of them lawyers and judges) , and have made good friends, few of which I can contact today. If there is to be a winner in this mess, I sincerely hope it is Ukraine.
But . . . . I will point to three things which explain my new and growing, hatred and fear of war. Hiroshima & Nagasaki; HMS Richard Montgomery; and, the current Ukrainian Russian conflict.
- Hiroshima & Nagasaki
In early August 1945, with the permission and approval of the UK, the US dropped two versions of the earliest atomic bombs on the cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. By most standards, this constituted a war crime, given the overwhelming ratio of civilian vs. military deaths.
From Wikipedia:
The consent of the United Kingdom was obtained for the bombing, as was required by the Quebec Agreement, and orders were issued on 25 July by General Thomas Handy, the acting chief of staff of the United States Army, for atomic bombs to be used against Hiroshima, Kokura, Niigata, and Nagasaki. These targets were chosen because they were large urban areas that also held militarily significant facilities. On 6 August, a Little Boy was dropped on Hiroshima. Three days later, a Fat Man was dropped on Nagasaki. Over the next two to four months, the effects of the atomic bombings killed 90,000 to 166,000 people in Hiroshima and 60,000 to 80,000 people in Nagasaki; roughly half occurred on the first day. For months afterward, many people continued to die from the effects of burns, radiation sickness, and other injuries, compounded by illness and malnutrition. Though Hiroshima had a sizable military garrison, most of the dead were civilians.
As many as 166,000 people in Hiroshima (49 % of its population) and 80,000 in Nagasaki (32 percent of its population) died in 1945 as a result of the bombs. Blast deaths causing deadly, extreme pressure, heat of the blasts themselves were the immediate causes, but within two to four months, radiation exposure and resulting complications led to the remaining deaths.
Studies are still being continued on cancer rates, IQ , school performance, mental illness, and longevity continue. While the latest studies are actually less scary than anticipated, they are not zero.
Remember, these were early atomic bombs, crude, rude, and by comparison to the smallest of today’s nuclear monsters, mere firecrackers.
Today’s modern and far more powerful weapons? Russia was known to have 5,580 before relations with the US collapsed. US admitted to 5,044. China- 500, France-290, UK-225, plus India, Pakistan, Israel, and North Korea also have nuclear arsenals.
EACH OF THOSE WEAPONS HAVE A SIGNIFICANTLY MORE POWERFUL explosive, destructive power and resulting radiation, some of which is quite long lived. If even a minor, if one could call it that, nuclear skirmish became a fact, it is likely to cause a global catastrophe, a decades long nuclear winter, and the immediate or near immediate deaths of billions. Food chains would be destroyed, waters poisoned, land made barren for generations, and completely uninhabitable.
I have read that a growing number of MAGA support the threat and the actual use of nukes. Weird? Yes, but also utterly, completely and unacceptably insane, as well.
B. SS Richard Montgomery
My biggest surprise was my ignorance. I never heard of this ship, its origin (US naval yards in Jacksonville, FL), its cargo (1400 tons of extremely powerful explosives) or its current resting place (the Nore sandbank in the Thames Estuary, near Sheerness, Kent, England)
The reason I found out about this clear and present danger, is due to my interest in the long-term impact of war.
This Liberty ship (7th of 82 ships) was built in Jacksonville, Florida and launched in 1943. In 1944, while laden with more than 6,000 tons of munitions and high explosives, she was directed to lay anchor in the Thames Estuary, waiting for the formation of a large convoy to France. It hit a sandbank and became stuck. Efforts to refloat it, and/or remove the huge amount of explosives were basically unsuccessful, as 1400 tons remain onboard. Those efforts caused the ship to split in half. According to Wiki, the remaining cargo consists of:
286 × 2,000 lb (910 kg) high explosive bombs
4,439 × 1,000 lb (450 kg) bombs of various types
1,925 × 500 lb (230 kg) bombs
2,815 fragmentation bombs and bomb clusters
Various explosive booster charges
Various smoke bombs, including white phosphorus bombs
Various pyrotechnic signals
Because of the nature of some of the weapons present, there is a substantial risk that it can explode, in a catastrophic fashion. A UK Governmental study, concluded in 1999, has remained top secret since it was completed. Given explosions on other sunken hulks, (such as the sunken Polish cargo ship Kielce ) carrying far, far less explosives, resulted in a huge explosion. A recent estimate concluded that should it combust, (sea water is quite probably corroding some of the cargo, and increases the risk of self combustion) a tidal wave 5 meters in height would be created, wiping out many areas along the Thames.
Boris Johnson’s efforts to build a nearby airport in 2010 were delayed when the potential impact of a possible explosion were studied. To make matters worse, the ship’s tall masts are rapidly degrading, and their collapse would trigger a catastrophic explosion. Removal was studied, including in the 2020s, but deemed too dangerous, as many metallic objects were discovered strewn around the wreck. New efforts to remove the huge masts might begin in 2024, weather permitting.
An 80 year old event could still lead to the deaths of hundreds of thousands. THAT is just one potential danger resulting from WWII. It is, as stated above, a clear and present . . . and GROWING. . . danger.
C. Today’s Ukrainian Russian conflict.
The subjects above were, and are, so fucking disturbing, that I will simply quote from an early 2024 UN report. The facts and deaths are even worse today:
“Russia’s full-scale armed attack on Ukraine, which is about to enter its third year with no end in sight, continues to cause serious and widespread human rights violations, destroying lives and livelihoods,” he said in a statement launching a new report.
This month marks not only two years since Moscow’s all out assault, but also 10 years since Russia illegally annexed Ukraine’s Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol.
Russia’s full-scale armed attack on #Ukraine enters its 3rd year with no end in sight, causing widespread human rights violations, & destroying lives & livelihoods.
Millions displaced, thousands dead
In its latest report, the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine has verified 30,457 civilian casualties since 24 February 2022, including 10,582 killed and 19,875 injured, with the actual numbers likely to be significantly higher.
Millions have been displaced, thousands have lost their homes, and hundreds of medical and educational institutions have been damaged or destroyed, significantly impacting people’s rights to health and education.
“The long-term impact of this war in Ukraine will be felt for generations,” Mr. Türk said.
Serious rights violations
Over the past two years, human rights office OHCHR has documented widespread torture, ill-treatment and arbitrary detention of civilians by Russian armed forces.
Summary executions, enforced disappearances and repression of the right to freedom of expression and assembly have also been documented in occupied territory.
In addition, interviews with over 550 former Ukrainian prisoners of war and civilian detainees by the monitoring mission have indicated the commission of serious violations of international human rights law and international humanitarian law by Russian armed forces, including summary execution and widespread torture.
Since 24 February 2022, the already dire human rights situation in occupied Crimea has worsened, with a crackdown on those criticizing the occupation. The UN Human Rights Office will release a report on the decade-long Russian occupation next week.
More than 14.6 million people – 40 per cent of Ukraine’s population – remain in need of some form of humanitarian assistance in 2024 and 2.2 million refugees require assistance in neighbouring countries, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) said in a statement on Thursday.
“The destruction is widespread, loss of life and suffering continues,” said International Organization for Migration (IOM) Director General Amy Pope.
Russia’s numbers probably match Ukraine’s losses. Its troop losses probably exceed Ukraine’s. The UN is planning to issue a report shortly.
Reality check: PUTIN IS INSANE. If he feels personally threatened, the CIA has concluded that the risk of nuclear arms being employed is not insignificant. From the CIA in 2022:
CIA Director William Burns defended the administration’s unprecedented strategy of releasing intelligence reports on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, saying it has been carried out in a carefully calibrated way designed to protect intelligence sources . . . .
Burns added that U.S. intelligence will continue to play a role in “ensuring that Putin fails in Ukraine.”
In sum, today’s nuclear threat is real.
These are but three issues and horrible set of facts. There are many more out there. Feel free to educate us. I became nauseous by just thinking these three events through.